Bitcoin

Crypto Markets Brace for Pivotal Week with Trump-Xi Talks and Fed Decisions

Published

2 weeks ago

October 28, 2025

The cryptocurrency market, fresh off a record-shattering October, enters one of its most volatile stretches yet as two macroeconomic juggernauts collide: high-stakes diplomacy between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, and the Federal Reserve’s anticipated interest rate pivot. With Bitcoin consolidating around $114,000—near its all-time highs after a weekend surge to $116,200—traders are bracing for swings that could either extend the bull run or trigger sharp corrections. Ethereum hovers at $4,120, while altcoins like Solana ($201) and XRP ($2.63) mirror the broader risk-on sentiment, buoyed by recent rebounds but vulnerable to geopolitical shocks.

This week’s confluence of events—capped by Trump’s Thursday meeting with Xi at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in South Korea and the Fed’s policy announcement on Wednesday—could inject trillions in liquidity or reignite trade tensions, reshaping crypto’s trajectory into year-end. Market analysts highlight that the Trump-Xi outcome may shape crypto’s near-term path more than the Fed rate decision, with betting markets pricing a 92% chance of a U.S.-China tariff agreement by November 10. Amid a government shutdown delaying key economic data, these developments arrive at a precarious moment: Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator signals seller exhaustion near the 200-day simple moving average ($108,800), but failure to break the 50-day SMA ($114,250) could cap upside.

Trump-Xi Summit: Trade Truce or Tariff Tempest?

Set against the backdrop of escalating U.S.-China frictions, the Trump-Xi talks—Trump’s first in-person with Xi since his January inauguration—center on tariffs, rare earth exports, and technology restrictions. Trump recently threatened 100% tariffs on Chinese goods in retaliation for Beijing’s tightened controls on rare earth minerals, vital for EVs, renewables, and military tech, where China dominates 70% of global supply. This rhetoric sparked an 8% Bitcoin plunge and $20 billion in liquidations earlier this month, underscoring crypto’s sensitivity to trade barbs.

Optimism has since tempered the storm. Weekend negotiations in Malaysia yielded a “substantial framework” for a deal, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent touting progress on delaying China’s rare earth curbs by a year and resuming broader talks. Trump echoed this Monday, signaling Washington and Beijing are “poised to come away with” an agreement, potentially including TikTok’s U.S. operations and cooperation on fentanyl precursors and critical minerals. Analysts note that each Trump tone-shift on China has mirrored BTC’s price: threats drag it down, olive branches spark rebounds.

A positive resolution could supercharge risk assets. Historical precedents—like the 2019 Phase One deal—saw Bitcoin rally 20% in weeks, as eased tensions unlocked Asian capital flows into crypto. With APAC claiming 43% of global crypto wallets, a truce might accelerate inflows, pushing BTC toward $120,000 and lifting DeFi TVL on chains like Solana. Conversely, stalled talks or Taiwan/Russia escalations could revive safe-haven bids for gold ($4,021/oz rebound) over crypto, risking a 10-12% volatility spike and altcoin sell-offs. As Trump departs Japan after a “royal welcome” from new Premier Sanae Takaichi, eyes turn to Gyeongju for breakthroughs—or breakdowns.

Fed’s Rate Cut: Liquidity Lifeline Amid Data Drought

Compounding the drama, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) convenes October 28-29, with markets pricing a near-certain 25-basis-point cut to 3.75%-4.00%, the second this year after September’s easing from 4.00%-4.25%. Chair Jerome Powell’s presser will be pivotal, sans economic projections due to the shutdown’s data blackouts—jobs reports and PCE inflation metrics remain AWOL, forcing reliance on Fed internals.

Dovish signals could prove transformative. Governor Christopher Waller backs the trim to cushion a softening labor market, while newcomer Stephen Miran pushes for bolder half-point moves, dissenting last month. Powell may hint at ending quantitative tightening (QT)—the Fed’s three-year balance sheet shrink—unleashing liquidity floods that historically propel Bitcoin 15-20% higher. With core CPI cooling to 0.2% (three-month low) and headline at 0.3%, easing aligns with the Fed’s dual mandate, potentially saving consumers $1.92 billion in credit card interest alone.

Yet caution lingers: Inflation’s 3% YoY perch above the 2% target, tariff-induced price pressures, and hawks like Michelle Bowman eyeing pauses could temper guidance. A hold or hawkish tilt—unlikely but possible—might dash 2026 cut bets, pressuring leveraged crypto positions. Post-September’s trim, BTC jumped to records; a repeat could sustain “Uptober’s” streak, with options data showing weakened put-option bias ahead of the meet.

Market Snapshot and What’s at Stake

Asset	Price (Oct 28)	24h Change	Key Level
Bitcoin (BTC)	$114,000	+1.7%	Resistance: $114,250 (50-day SMA)
Ethereum (ETH)	$4,120	+3%	Support: $4,000
Solana (SOL)	$201	+3%	Upside: $250 on risk-on flows
XRP	$2.63	+3%	Momentum: Above 200-day avg

Big Tech earnings from Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta (Wednesday), and Apple/Amazon (Thursday) add fuel, with AI spending and China exposure under scrutiny. Crypto stocks like MicroStrategy and Coinbase climbed Monday on trade thaw signals, up 5-7%.

The Road Ahead: Rally or Reckoning?

A dovish Fed plus Trump-Xi détente could catalyze a $500 billion influx, testing BTC at $120,000 and Ethereum at $4,500, per analyst analogs. Failure on either front risks a swift unwind—watch $108,000 as BTC’s line in the sand. With volatility implied at multi-month highs, this week isn’t just pivotal; it’s defining. Strap in—crypto’s next leg starts now.

Disclaimer

The content on CoinReporter.io is for informational purposes only and is not financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile and risky. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. CoinReporter.io and its authors are not liable for any losses resulting from actions based on this website’s content.

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Bitcoin

Trump Administration Explores Allowing Crypto-Backed Mortgages

Published

1 hour ago

November 12, 2025

Coin Reporter Correspondent

In a bold move to fuse digital innovation with traditional housing finance, the Trump administration is advancing policies that could allow Americans to use cryptocurrency holdings as collateral for mortgages. Issued in late June 2025, a directive from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) orders government-backed mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to develop frameworks for incorporating crypto assets into single-family loan risk assessments—without requiring borrowers to liquidate their digital holdings into cash first. This initiative, championed as part of President Donald Trump’s vision to position the United States as the “crypto capital of the world,” could unlock billions in untapped wealth for homebuyers while sparking debate over financial stability.

Revolutionizing Mortgage Underwriting

The FHFA’s order, signed by Director William J. Pulte on June 25, 2025, marks a dramatic reversal from prior policies. Under the Biden administration, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac explicitly excluded cryptocurrency from income or asset considerations due to its “high level of uncertainty.” Now, these entities—which guarantee over half of U.S. mortgages—must propose adjustments to their underwriting processes, including volatility discounts and verification protocols for crypto held on regulated U.S. exchanges.

Pulte announced the directive on X, stating: “After significant studying, and in keeping with President Trump’s vision to make the United States the crypto capital of the world, today I ordered the Great Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to prepare their businesses to count cryptocurrency as an asset for a mortgage.” The proposals require board approval and FHFA sign-off, with an emphasis on risk mitigants like “adjustments for market volatility and ensuring sufficient risk-based adjustments to the share of reserves comprised of cryptocurrency.”

This shift means crypto-rich individuals—estimated at over 50 million Americans holding digital assets—could leverage Bitcoin, Ethereum, or other approved tokens to boost their loan eligibility, similar to how stocks or retirement accounts are evaluated today. Private lenders like Milo Credit have already pioneered crypto-secured mortgages since 2022, but federal backing could scale this nationwide, potentially increasing buying power without triggering capital gains taxes from sales.

Economic Boost or Risky Gamble?

Advocates hail the policy as a catalyst for economic growth, arguing it taps into the $2.5 trillion U.S. crypto market to fuel housing demand amid high interest rates and a sluggish real estate sector. “This could inject fresh liquidity into the housing market, lowering barriers for tech-savvy millennials and Gen Z buyers who view crypto as a core asset,” said Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.), who introduced bipartisan legislation to codify the FHFA directive into law. Industry leaders echo this sentiment, with Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse praising the administration’s pro-innovation stance under Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, a confirmed crypto advocate who has shaped related policies like staking guidance for exchange-traded products.

The broader context includes Trump’s January 2025 executive order establishing a Presidential Working Group on Digital Asset Markets, which has produced reports recommending crypto integration into mortgages and even 401(k)s. Bessent, in July remarks, framed these efforts as building a “Golden Age of Crypto,” rescinding prior “anti-crypto” measures and fostering a regulatory environment that aligns with Republican values of financial freedom. By November 2025, follow-up discussions suggest the policy could extend to a “strategic national digital assets stockpile,” further embedding crypto in federal finance.

Yet, critics warn of volatility’s perils. Democrats in the Senate, including those raising alarms during Lummis’s bill hearings, argue that baking crypto into the mortgage system could amplify systemic risks, reminiscent of the 2008 subprime crisis. “Lenders already struggle with crypto’s verification challenges; a market crash could leave borrowers underwater and taxpayers on the hook,” noted a Senate Banking Committee Democrat in response to the directive. Only 1% of recent homebuyers used crypto for down payments, per a National Association of Realtors survey, highlighting limited current demand but underscoring the experimental nature of the push.

Navigating Valuation, Regulation, and Inclusion

Implementation hinges on robust frameworks for crypto valuation—likely using real-time exchange data with conservative haircuts for price swings—and custody rules limiting acceptance to platform-held assets, excluding self-custodied wallets for security reasons. The FHFA’s directive mandates these details, but experts anticipate SEC oversight to ensure compliant assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum qualify first.

If enacted, the policy could enhance financial inclusion by enabling underserved crypto holders—disproportionately young and diverse demographics—to access homeownership without forced asset sales. It aligns with Trump’s privatization plans for Fannie and Freddie, potentially ending their 17-year conservatorship and injecting private capital into a crypto-friendly model. However, careful oversight is paramount: The Department of Labor’s neutral stance on crypto in 401(k)s offers a blueprint, but housing’s scale demands stress testing to avert broader contagion.

A Defining Moment for Crypto in Mainstream Finance

This FHFA directive exemplifies the Trump administration’s aggressive pivot toward crypto mainstreaming, from strategic Bitcoin reserves to ETP staking clarity. As Pulte’s order moves toward final proposals, it could redefine housing finance, stimulating economic activity while testing regulators’ mettle against innovation’s risks. For a nation grappling with affordability crises, crypto-backed mortgages promise inclusion but demand vigilance to safeguard the American Dream.

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