Crypto
India Budget 2026: Data Shows Crypto Traders Paid Tax Even After Losses

The post India Budget 2026: Data Shows Crypto Traders Paid Tax Even After Losses appeared first on Coinpedia Fintech News
As the Union Budget 2026 approaches, India’s crypto tax regime is facing renewed scrutiny after fresh data showed that nearly half of crypto investors ended FY25 with losses, yet many still paid taxes due to the structure of capital gains rules and transaction-level deductions.
A new report by KoinX, titled India’s Crypto Tax Story 2025, shows what it describes as a widening disconnect between actual trading outcomes and tax liabilities in the virtual digital assets (VDA) market.
Losses for Many, Taxes for Most
The report is based on anonymised data from nearly 7 lakh Indian crypto users who traded during FY 2024–25. It shows investor outcomes were almost evenly split:
- 50.91% of users reported net capital gains
- 49.09% of users reported net capital losses
Despite this balance, investors who finished the year in losses still faced tax bills. According to the data, users who incurred net capital losses of ₹1,178 crore still paid tax on ₹180 crore of taxable gains, as current rules do not allow crypto losses to be offset against gains.
This also differs from the treatment of most other asset classes, where capital gains tax is applied to net profits, not isolated trades.
TDS Improves Compliance, but Locks Up Capital
The report also analysed the impact of the 1% tax deducted at source (TDS) levied on crypto transactions. While the measure has strengthened transaction-level reporting and compliance, it has also led to significant capital lock-in, particularly for high-frequency traders.
Key findings for FY 2024–25 include:
- ₹511.83 crore collected as crypto TDS across the ecosystem
- ₹130.16 crore contributed by KoinX users alone
- Actual tax payable: ₹91.64 crore
- Excess TDS/refunds: ₹38.52 crore
More than 30% of users had TDS deducted in excess of their final tax liability, making refunds a routine outcome rather than an exception. Nearly half of all TDS-paying users still ended the year with net losses, according to the report.
Concentration and Liquidity Concerns
The data also points to a sharp concentration in trading activity. Less than 5% of traders accounted for 87% of total TDS collections, reflecting the outsized role of active traders who typically operate on thin margins.
Analysts say repeated upfront deductions reduce liquidity, widen bid-ask spreads, and raise trading costs, especially during periods of market volatility.
Budget 2026 in Focus
With Budget 2026 approaching, industry observers say the findings add pressure on policymakers to revisit crypto taxation. Expectations centre on rationalisation rather than expansion, including possible changes to the TDS rate, thresholds, or rules around loss offsets.
The broader policy question remains whether India’s crypto tax framework should continue to prioritise transaction visibility, or evolve toward a system that better reflects net economic outcomes.
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Crypto
Anthropic’s Pentagon battle shifts from courtroom to chain of command
The Pentagon will continue its existing ban on Anthropic, regardless of other cabinet members stating that the bigger battle has ended. For now, the remaining designation by the Department of Defense will either have to be reversed by a court ruling or by the Pentagon itself. On Thursday, high-ranking officials from the Pentagon made it clear that the latter scenario is highly unlikely.
That keeps the courts at the center of the dispute. And the outcome matters beyond Anthropic because it could help define how far the US government can go in penalizing an AI contractor that refuses to remove its own limits on military uses of its technology.
Michael’s post cut against Lutnick’s thaw
Emil Michael, the Under Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering, wrote on X that “Anthropic is still a designated Supply Chain Risk at @DeptofWar and for the Defense Industrial Base.” He closed with “Thank you for your attention to this matter!”
The remark followed Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick’s positive comments about Anthropic. Lutnick stated to Mike Allen of Axios, “We trust Anthropic,” explaining that the company had “done what we asked” and was “back on the right side.”
Anthropic co-founder Tom Brown joined Lutnick in Chapel Hill, North Carolina, during the G20 Innovation Ministerial on September 2, adding to the belief that relations had improved.
However, Lutnick’s and Michael’s issues were entirely different.
Two feuds, one company
The thaw Lutnick described largely concerns Commerce. The government imposed export controls on Anthropic’s Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models in June over concerns that safeguards could be bypassed to expose advanced cybersecurity capabilities. Those restrictions were later lifted after Anthropic worked with the government on additional safeguards.
The Pentagon dispute is something different. The Defense officials confronted Anthropic on the limitations that the latter wanted to impose on the military use of Claude. Anthropic claims that it had drawn two red lines, one concerning fully autonomous weapons and the other with respect to mass domestic surveillance, while operational decisions would otherwise remain with the military.
According to an earlier report from Cryptopolitan, the Pentagon and the Trump administration clashed with Anthropic in public about these limits while also seeking to expand agreements with other AI giants in Washington.
The financial implications are enormous. An official announcement from the Department of Defense shows that Anthropic signed a $200 million prototype agreement with it in July 2025 to build frontier AI technologies for national-security work.
The courts, not Commerce, hold the switch
Anthropic has already won one major round. On August 27, US District Judge Rita Lin in San Francisco ruled in Anthropic’s favor over Pentagon actions taken under 10 U.S.C. § 3252.
She found unlawful retaliation under the First Amendment, a denial of required due process under the Fifth Amendment, and concluded that the designation was contrary to law and arbitrary and capricious.
Cryptopolitan reported after the ruling that Anthropic welcomed the finding that the designation was unlawful and again said it wanted to work with the government on national security.
But the ruling did not erase every Pentagon action. The department also invoked 41 U.S.C. § 4713, creating a separate supply-chain-risk designation that Anthropic is challenging in the D.C. Circuit.
Michael’s post, therefore, does not overturn the California ruling. It highlights what remains unresolved.
What to watch next
For Anthropic to clear the Pentagon’s remaining supply-chain designation, the D.C. Circuit must rule in its favor or the Defense Department must abandon the action.
Until then, Lutnick’s reconciliation with Anthropic does not amount to a Pentagon reversal. The next decisive signal is more likely to come from Washington’s appeals court — or from the Pentagon itself — than from another warm exchange at a technology summit.
The judicial track can constrain or invalidate executive action; it isn’t another rung in the Pentagon hierarchy. Will the Pentagon create a new restriction? Or will Anthropic survive the legal defects identified by Judge Lin? The answers to these questions open the next chapter rather than simply asking whether Anthropic “wins” or “loses.”

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